The FedEx Cup playoffs are in full swing and the end of the PGA season is near. Tomorrow is the final round of the 2022 BMW Championship and the stakes are high on the DFS scene. There’s $100,000 up top on Draftkings for the final round finale, and we’ll be breaking down all the best plays throughout the remainder of this write-up.
Consider our core plays as our higher conviction plays on the slate. You can use these as a foundation to start your lineups or consider how this research impacts your own ideas. These are not ranked in any specific order.
It’s hard to avoid a guy who shot a bogey-free 65 on moving day. Jon Rahm is the former world #1 golfer and he’s perfectly capable of making a similar move tomorrow. He’s shot two consecutive rounds under par since opening up a bad first round. This is a situation where we have to forgive the initial bad play and assume Rahm now has a good feel for the course.
Cantlay will likely be a chalky play tomorrow due to his price and position on the leaderboard. Although he leads the tournament, Draftkings has him priced in the $9,000 range which will result in a lot of interest.
Cantlay did very well on moving day, posting a 6-under 65 and taking the solo lead. He’s shot at least 3-under par in every round of the tournament, and this type of consistency is great for PGA showdown. When you factor in his birdie/eagle upside as well, the situation looks even more promising.
Overall, Cantlay is in a strong position to win the tournament, and he merits high ownership if it turns out that way.
Almost everything that applies to Patrick Cantlay also applies to Xander Schauffele for tomorrow. The two are ironically great friends, they sit atop of the leaderboard, and they’ll be playing the whole round together tomorrow. Chances are, Xander will be chalk right alongside his buddy Cantlay.
Despite the chalky sentiment, there’s reasons to absolutely love Schauffele in this situation. He’s just as consistent as Cantlay, but he’s flashed higher scoring upside with two rounds of 67 or lower. Right now he’s tied for second place, one stroke behind Cantlay.
The second round was the worst for Xander Schauffele so far, and a 69 isn’t bad by any means. He’s consistently posting low scores, and it seems like he’s improving with each round considering he had no bogeys today. Schauffele is in a position to compete for the win tomorrow.
Wise is worth a lot of consideration due to his reasonable price and all-around solid play. He’s improving round over round, posting scores of 69, 68, and 67. This progression is promising from a DFS perspective and indicates consistent, good play at the very least.
Extremely underpriced considering his position on the leaderboard and recent form. Stallings has high birdied upside, and he’s shown it in all three rounds so far. He hasn’t shot lower than a 68 in all three rounds which puts him in the same category as Patrick Cantlay for a fraction of the price. Placement points matter in round 4 and Stallings has a high chance at a top 5 finish tomorrow.
Ideally we want to build a squad of six golfers who can all score -3 or -4 in tomorrow’s round. Niemann has been consistent throughout the BMW Championship, posting rounds of -2, -2, and -3. These scores might not seem low enough on paper, but if the course is playing difficult tomorrow Niemann can benefit greatly. He’s largely limited mistakes throughout the first three rounds, and he’s in a position to surge up the leaderboard with a good final round.
Riley went through a terrible start to the tournament, but he’s slowly bouncing back since then. We’re considering Riley a core play primarily because of how he fits in various lineup constructions relative to his upside. He shot under par the past two rounds and he’ll look to do so tomorrow if he wants a higher finish. It’s a bonus that he has one of the earliest tee times due to his position on the leaderboard. We can look past his bad first round in this case.
Below are golfers worth mentioning for final round lineups. Although some of these golfers could be a core play, many are unappealing due to pricing or volatility in their play.
Scheffler has fired off a round of 68 or better in all three rounds so far. He’s worth considering as a core play, but it’s harder to build strong lineups due to his higher price tag. If you’re looking for consistent golfers, Scottie Scheffler is a great choice. He seems to be in his groove as he looks to maintain his #1 status in the FedEx Cup rankings.
We believe Sungjae is a lowkey play with a lot of upside for tomorrow. He’s priced alongside golfers who will likely garner more attention which is great if you’re looking to get different. Sungjae has known upside so if matches his 4-under 67 from today he’ll see a strong finish Sunday night.
Poston is volatile but worth considering. He has eagle upside and the ability to go low if he limits his mistakes. His price-tag for round 4 is unbelievably cheap, so expect high ownership. Playing J.T Poston as a potentially over-owned play is risky but might be warranted depending on your lineup construction.
Harman will probably go overlooked tomorrow due to his mediocre play throughout this tournament. Despite this, he’s a talented golfer with the potential to go low and move up the ranks. We like him as a contrarian play for tomorrow, and it’s promising that he has an earlier tee time.
It’s hard to get a read on the South African’s ownership percentage, but he might go a little overlooked. He’s priced fairly and stands out on the leaderboard, but based on history, a lot of gamers just don’t click his name. Bezuidenhout has shot two low rounds of 4-under 67 but shot 2-over par in the second round. Although volatile, he has the potential to score low tomorrow.
The PGA season is almost over, and we’re one step closer with Sunday’s closing of the 2022 BMW Championship. Be sure to check out the rest of our DFS content, and as always, best of luck with your lineups!