It’s crazy that we’re more than halfway through the 2022 NFL season, but here we are. With the main slate behind us, we’re shifting our attention to tonight’s matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders. Both teams feature a handful of players with high upside on DraftKings due to the PPR scoring.
We’ll structure this article by going over the reasonable captain plays first. Following this, we’ll look at several players who are worth considering regardless of the lineup construction. Enjoy, and thank you for checking out our week 10 NFL DFS showdown picks.
There’s a lot of pass catchers on this slate who see enough targets to have a big game. In an effort to maximize total profit potential, we’re keeping the captain player pool at a total of five options. Each of these options have a high enough floor and see enough usage to get the job done.
It’s hard to avoid one of the few guys that can break this slate and put-up 40+ fantasy points. Although Hurts tends to take his foot off the gas when the Eagles are winning, he needs to be considered in the captain spot tonight. His rushing upside alone is enough to make him the optimal captain in an otherwise dead game.
The major downside regarding Hurts tonight is his price tag. He’s the most expensive player on the slate by a wide margin. You’ll have to take your chances in a flex spot or two if you go this route.
It’s worth noting that Jalen Hurts hasn’t really flashed his fantasy ceiling this year. He’s had some big games, but nothing really jaw-dropping given what we know about him. Overall, the opportunity cost is massive if you captain Hurts, but if this game stays close it will pay off. His expensive price tag will likely keep his ownership down.
A.J. Brown is similar to Jalen Hurts in the sense that they can both go nuclear on any given night. By nuclear, I mean he drops 40 fantasy points like it’s another day at the office. It’s imperative to consider a ceiling such as A.J. Brown’s when you’re filling the captain spot tonight.
Brown has seen at least 6 targets in every game he’s played this year. In fact, the only time he saw less than 7 targets in a game was last week against the Texans. He’s undoubtedly the #1 receiver on the Eagles, generally only needing a touchdown to become a “must-have” piece in DFS.
Brown is the second most expensive captain option behind Jalen Hurts. Chances are, because of the price difference, Brown will be a higher owned captain tonight. To keep it simple, if you think Brown will score a touchdown tonight, you should probably play him in the captain spot. Six or seven receptions paired with a touchdown and yardage is hard to beat if he ends up getting there.
Full disclosure, the Eagles’ defense in the captain spot is more of a contrarian take for large field GPPs. Regardless, however, it’s interesting that this is the most expensive a defense has been in DFS showdown this year. The Eagles are a high scoring fantasy defense to begin with, but they clearly have a path to success here.
To start, the Eagles’ home crowd will be electric tonight. They have a perfect season on the line, and they’ll be making Washington hear it whenever they’re on offense. The Eagles are averaging 12 fantasy points at home this season and facing a mediocre Washington offense. One defensive touchdown will almost surely make this an optimal play.
Samuel is the cheapest play tonight amongst receivers who get a lot of usage. He’s technically the #2 WR behind Terry McLaurin, but the two have similar stat lines on the season. Samuel opened the season as a value fantasy juggernaut, posting double digit targets in two of the first three games.
Curtis Samuel has caught four passes in each of the last two games. This seems unproductive, but he’s only managed to be a bust twice this season. His redzone looks and overall big play making ability make him a captain worth considering.
Goedert is amongst the most volatile of our captain picks, but he hasn’t let anyone down recently. Tonight, he’s in the same boat as Curtis Samuel – good value with high usage. You probably won’t be very confident putting Goedert in the captain spot, but it does allow you to build strong lineups assuming he does well.
Goedert is coming off a season high 9 targets last week. He caught 8 of these targets, including one for a touchdown, and ended up with 27 DK points. Although we can’t expect the same type of production tonight, it’s entirely possible to see a similar ordeal. Goedert typically sees more targets than Devonta Smith, who’s technically the #2 receiver.
Curtis Samuel - $6,600 DK
Samuel is a great value play tonight considering his role in Washington’s offense. Fellow receiver Dyami Brown ($5,000 DK) should be returning to Washington’s offense tonight, but that’s the only risky thing to note here. Unlike Curtis Samuel, Brown hasn’t taken the field with Taylor Heinicke yet, so we have no idea how the usage will shake out.
Until we see a change, it’s worth taking a shot on Curtis Samuel. He seems to have good rapport with Heinicke, and this is backed up by consecutive weeks with double-digit fantasy points. All in all, he’s probably the safest as a flex play because the opportunity cost is a lot lower.
Dallas Goedert - $7,800 DK
There will likely be some recency bias regarding Goedert, considering he had a phenomenal game last week. Despite this, he’s one of the top receivers on the Eagles for a relatively cheap price. Note that there’s no shortage of volatility with tight ends, so Goedert isn’t a lock by any means. If the game script turns run heavy, he’ll likely break a lot of hearts tonight.
Based on the information we have, Goedert is a better play than the likes of Devonta Smith who’s in the same price range. Knowing this, drafting the tight end is a solid pivot off of Smith, and likely creates a higher floor. Remember to factor in ownership projections if you’re exclusively entering bigger contests.
Brian Robinson Jr. - $5,400 DK
Brian Robinson Jr. is the NFL’s version of 50 Cent at this point, but we’re here for it. Tonight, JD McKissic is out for the Commanders, so the rookie running back could see a big workload. Robinson will still have Antonio Gibson to compete with, but this shouldn’t be a huge issue considering Washington’s tendency to use multiple backs.
Robinson is the type of player that Washington will look to when near the goal line. He’s a big, physical back who could easily score a touchdown or two and end up in the optimal lineup. We suggest steering clear of Robinson for cash game and single entry purposes because there’s just too much uncertainty. He is, however, worth a look in any GPP tournament because of the lack of worthwhile options at this price.