Football is back in full swing, and we’re thrilled to bring you our top picks every week. Week 1 came with a lot of surprises – some of which were expected if you did your research. The remainder of this article covers our best NFL week 2 bets with research to back them up.
If you’re looking for a pick of the week, look no further. We have a lot of conviction on Aaron Jones hitting the over on his rushing prop this week. Lines were recently released on most big sportsbooks, and we’ll be all over this one.
The Packers will face the Bears on Sunday Night Football this week. Green Bay had a terrible performance in Week 1 which caused them to lose to the Vikings. You might not want anything to do with the Packers after their poor showing, but there’s plenty of reasons to love Aaron Jones.
We’re accustomed to seeing a two-man backfield nowadays in Green Bay. Aaron Jones is the RB1 on paper, but fellow back A.J Dillon also sees a lot of work. Interestingly enough, Dillon saw opportunities when they mattered the most last week. He scored a touchdown and was trusted in several 3rd down situations.
Aaron Jones should bounce back and prove his worth this week, despite Dillon’s flash of greatness in week 1. Head coach Matt LaFleur hinted to the fact that Jones’ production was not where it should have been. He explicitly stated that only 8 touches is simply acceptable for Jones. Knowing this, we can expect Jones will see ample opportunities on Sunday night and get back to his normal self.
I expect this line to move up before the weekend, so it’s definitely worth taking where it stands. Although speculative, LaFleur should stay true to his word and give Aaron Jones more work. Considering his ability to break tackles and his overall talent, Jones should have no problem hitting his rushing yards.
Steelers/Patriots u40.5 Total Points, -110 DK
If it’s not broke, don’t fix it – and that’s why we’re riding with the under in the Steelers game. The Steelers defense had a remarkable week 1, forcing 5 turnovers and recording 7 sacks on Joe Burrow. They led defensive fantasy scoring by a wide margin, largely due to Minkah Fitzpatrick’s defensive touchdown. This week, Pittsburgh will play the Patriots who appeared to struggle on offense in their first game.
Below you’ll see an image that depicts just how good the Steelers’ defense was last week.
We like the under in this game simply because of the two offenses at hand. The Patriots struggled to get anything going, mostly due to an unorganized receiving core. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has Mitch Trubisky starting at quarterback, and he’s not very successful at finding the endzone.
The total might appear low for this game, but there’s a high chance that field goals will determine the winner. In terms of game theory, we expect both teams to see minimal red-zone opportunities, thus leading to a lot of punts or FGs.
Lastly, it’s worth noting both of these defenses are above average to begin with. When we factor in two struggling offenses to the equation, it all points to a low scoring game. Expect the pace of this game to be controlled primarily by Pittsburgh’s defense and for the game to go under.
Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 , -130 DK
Joe Burrow and the Bengals gave us a thriller last week, but don’t expect this next game to be as close. Cincinnati will face a battered Cowboys team who won’t have Dak Prescott available. We bought the hook on this line which we expect the Bengals to cover easily.
If you watched last week’s game, you’ll know that Cincinnati shouldn’t have had a fighting chance. Turnovers were non-stop, and Burrow got sacked 7 times throughout the game. Despite this, the duo of Burrow and Ja’Maar Chase kept things interesting, thus leading to an overtime finish.
This Sunday should be a completely different story. Dallas is without their star quarterback, so the offensive struggles will likely get worse. The Bengals showed that they can compete even when they make mistakes which makes the touchdown spread even more promising.
We can assume that Cincinnati’s turnover disaster is unlikely to happen again. It’s even less likely that the line allows 7 sacks simultaneously. Essentially, we expect that the offense will correct their mistakes and lead to more success.
Other than Dak Prescott, the only injury worth noting is Tee Higgins from the Bengals. He went into concussion protocol after last game, so Cincinnati could be without their WR2. This shouldn’t be an issue for Joe Burrow who gave the most targets to Ja’Maar Chase, Hayden Hurst, and Tyler Boyd. Look for the Bengals to win big this weekend.
Panthers/Giants o43.5 Total Points, -115 DK
Our last pick for this weekend’s loaded slate is the over in the Panthers/Giants game. We view this number as too low considering what’s at stake. The Giants miraculously escaped with a win in week 1, while Baker Mayfield and the Panthers struggled to beat his old team.
Saquon Barkley accounted for a majority of the Giants’ offense in week 1, and he seems to be back to his old self. This is promising for QB Daniel Jones because his key offensive piece is healthy, therefore opening the door for the passing game. Daniel Jones doesn’t fall into the category of elite quarterbacks, but he did enough passing last week to keep the offense productive.
Baker Mayfield needs a bounce-back, especially after losing a game everyone expected him to win. Luckily, he has plenty of solid targets on offense, and arguably the best all-purpose back in Christian McCaffery. Mayfield no longer has to worry about the nerves that come with playing a former team, so this is a good spot for him.
This total covers if we combine both teams’ totals from their first games. That doesn’t mean anything, but it’s reassuring to know that both teams put up at least three touchdowns. There’s enough offensive firepower in this game for either team to score multiple times early on, and that’s what we’re keen on.
The last thing to note regarding this pick is the chance of a sloppy game playing out. Both quarterbacks have shown a high rate of turnovers in the past, and turnovers usually lead to scoring opportunities. On the off chance that both QBs create lots of turnovers, the over on total points will benefit.
This wraps up our NFL Week 2 bets for the 2022 season. Considering that this article is written days before kickoff, it might be best to lock some of these picks in early. Lines have a tendency to move if a lot of action is coming in on a certain pick, so make sure you take advantage.
We plan to put out these write-ups every week of the NFL season. Our content will always be free, so make sure you check in to get the most detailed betting write-ups on a regular basis. Remember to do your own research in addition to what we provide, and as always, we wish you the best of luck this weekend.