The third week of the football season is right around the corner. Week 2 gave us a better idea of what to expect throughout the season, and we’ll continue to build on that throughout the year. Below you can find our NFL week 3 betting preview where we break down high conviction plays and leans.
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Buffalo Bills / Miami Dolphins u54.5 Total Points, -110 DK
On paper this seems like it could be the highest scoring matchup ever, but we’re playing the devil’s advocate. The Dolphins put on an offensive clinic in week 2, and the Bills seem to do so every week. Despite this, there are reasons to believe both teams are due for some negative regression on offense.
To start off, the chances of Tua Tagavailoa having another performance like last weeks is slim to none. Especially against the Bills defense. The Bills are the #1 consensus D/ST in the league, and they showed why after holding the Titans to 7 points.
Miami has a lot of weapons on offense – most notably Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. It’s easy to speculate that the Bills will want to keep the ball out of their hands as much as possible. There’s no telling what type of defensive scheme they’ll roll out, but they’ll likely try to force the run game.
Speedy players like Hill and Waddle represent most of the touchdown upside for the Dolphins. It’s clear that Miami’s run game has struggled the first two weeks, so they’re honing in on their receivers. Essentially, stopping the heavy passing attack is all that’s required for the Bills to slow down Miami.
This is the highest point total on the board by a wide-margin. Now that the Dolphins are 2-0 ATS to start the season, we expect them to run into some hurdles. There’s no better time for this to happen than against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals -5 , -110 DK
Going back to the well means backing the Cincinnati Bengals again this week. Unfortunately, Burrow and the Bengals couldn’t get it done against the Cowboys last Sunday. That game seemed like a no-brainer win for Cinci, but they’ve now dropped two in a row for the first time in over a year.
The Bengals will remain on the road this week as they face the New York Jets. New York won last week against the Cleveland Browns in a game that truly went down to the wire. The win will give the Jets some confidence, but they might come in too confident for their own good.
Joe Burrow is 2-0 after losing two games in a row since the start of the 2021 season. The frustration amongst the Bengals was obvious to viewers, with Ja’Maar Chase claiming the team took no shots. Now, in week 3, Cincinnati should be taking plenty of shots against a Jets’ defense that ranks poorly in total offense allowed.
The Bengals were frustrated defensively too, and rightfully so. They got stomped by backup QB Cooper Rush in a game where they were 7-point favorites. After such a poor effort in week two, one can only hope that Cincinnati’s defense has more motivation against the Jets. The matchup looks to be favorable for them as they’ll face a young offense headed by veteran QB Joe Flacco.
Baltimore Ravens ML , -155 DK
The Baltimore Ravens are coming off the game of the year against the Miami Dolphins. Although they ended up losing the game, Baltimore played a great game on offense. Lamar Jackson had a combined 438 yards of offense and added 4 total touchdowns.
The Ravens play the Patriots in Foxborough this Sunday for New England’s home opener. Bill Belichick is historically great at Gillette Stadium, but the Patriots’ offense is off to a dreadfully slow start this year. We expect the Ravens to outpace the Patriots and generate a lot more scoring opportunities.
Through two games, the Ravens rank fifth in points scored and 12th in yards per game. The Patriots, on the other hand, rank 30th in points scored and 22nd in total yards. New England’s defense is above average, but the difference in offensive production is too lopsided to not like Baltimore in this spot.
You can opt for the spread if you want better odds, considering it’s only three points right now. We expect both the money-line and spread to continue moving in favor of the Ravens until Sunday.
Low-Unit Leans
Washington Commanders +6.5, -110 DK:
Carson Wentz is off to a hot start in 2022 as he seems to have a good feel for Washington’s offense. This week, the Commanders take on the Eagles at home. We like the idea of sprinkling the Commanders as big home underdogs. They’ve kept both of their first two games competitive, and the Philadelphia Eagles are due for some negative regression.
Indianapolis Colts +7, -110 DK:
Piggy-backing off the home underdogs concept here. The Indianapolis Colts are the biggest home underdogs in week 3, and they’re due for a win. Matt Ryan and the Colts’ offense looked abysmal last week, and they’ll now have an even greater challenge against Kansas City. We expect the Colts to slow the pace of the game by giving Jonathan Taylor lots of carries. Winning this game means keeping the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands, and they’ll do this by running the ball.
Pittsburgh Steelers / Cleveland Browns o38 total points, -110 DK:
This is the lowest total on the board spanning from Thursday to Monday. 38 points simply seems two low for two teams that are coming off heartbreaking losses. Although neither offense is amazing, we’re talking a matter of five touchdowns and a field goal for both teams. We expect the offenses to take some shots and cover this over easily.
Final Thoughts
This wraps up our NFL week 3 betting preview. We’ll likely add a few more picks throughout the week, so make sure to check back for updates! Treat all picks as one unit unless specified otherwise. Leans should be taken with a grain of salt as these are picks we spend less time researching.
