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MLB Best Bets 08/31/2022 – Totals and Run-Line Value

  • Post category:Betting

September baseball is just one day away and each day brings more anticipation for the playoffs. Today we’ll be breaking down three of our best MLB bets for 08/31/2022 to give you a head start going into next month. Below you’ll find write-ups for two total runs picks and one spread pick. 

NY Yankees / LA Angels o7.5 , -115 DK

Tonight the Yankees face the Angels in what projects as a low scoring matchup. Gerrit Cole and Patrick Sandoval will take the mound; two solid pitchers who are statistically good at limiting runs. Tonight it seems like the tables may turn, and the 7.5 run total is pretty appealing. 

The Yankees have been in somewhat of an offensive slump lately but we can’t expect that to continue with the playoffs around the corner. It’s promising that they scored 7 runs yesterday to win their first game in the series. Despite not playing to their true potential, the Yankees are averaging 4.3 runs per game over their last 10. 

On paper this matchup looks like it’s going under, but we need to address how bad Gerrit Cole has been recently. He’s certainly a high-ceiling pitcher but he’s prone to walking batters and his recent form isn’t great. He’ll face an Angels lineup that’s likely to feature Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout – two of the top hitters in the game. 

The Angels have been fade worthy most of the season due to their high strikeout rate as a team. Their strikeout woes haven’t changed much, but it’s worth noting that they’ve been playing well lately. The Angels have won 4 of their last 5 games while averaging 5.6 runs per game in this period. Things seem to be looking up for the halos, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they got to Gerrit Cole fairly easily. 

All in all, this game features two offenses that are capable of a lot of damage. The two starting pitchers are above average, but recent form suggests they’re both hittable. Lastly, temperatures are hot and winds are calm in Anaheim which doesn’t bode well for pitchers. Look for some offensive magic on the west coast tonight. 

Chicago White Sox -1.5 , +100 DK

The Chicago White Sox will play an intra-division matchup against the Kansas City Royals tonight. This is a must win game for Chicago considering they’re on a 5-game losing streak with the playoffs quickly approaching. Kansas City will start Kris Bubic on the mound – a LHP with a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. 

The White Sox are in a position to snap their losing streak in a big way. To start, Lance Lynn will be on the mound for the Sox, and he’s really managed to turn his season around. Although he has a 5.00 ERA, Lynn has a 1.19 WHIP and 83 strikeouts through 77.1 IP. He’s allowed less than 2 earned runs in his last three outings and averaging 7 strikeouts each game. 

Aside from the top three in the order, the Royals’ lineup isn’t great. Lance Lynn should be able to limit their offensive production and the Sox bats should have no problem with Kris Bubic. This season, the White Sox have a .276 team average and a .344 OBP against left-handed pitching. Bubic’s high WHIP and poor recent form should allow Chicago to score early and often. 

Everything is falling into place for the White Sox to get back on track. After losing 5 games in a row, they’re now in a situation where they’re at home and facing a bad pitcher. Look for Jose Abreu and A.J Pollock to do well considering they both have a high ISO against LHP. 

LA Dodgers / NY Mets o6.5 , -120 DK

It makes sense for this game to have a low total considering two elite pitchers are playing tonight. On one side, we have Jacob DeGrom who’s arguably the best in the league. On the other side, we have Tyler Anderson who’s been amazing this year with a 2.69 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. 

This game is exciting because we’re looking at a potential preview of the 2022 NLCS. These two teams are among the best in the national league, and there’s something to prove when they play. Both teams rank top 5 in runs scored per game, so it’s hard to like the under when the line is set so low. 

We saw the first game of this series end 4-3 in favor of the Dodgers. A similar situation can easily unfold tonight despite what DeGrom and Anderson are capable of. Interestingly enough, the Dodgers have cashed this total 6 times by themselves in the past 10 games. Even the Mets have managed to do this 3 times in the last 10 games. This goes to show how low a total of 6.5 is. 

Overall, this is way too low of a total for the two offenses at hand. Both teams rank top 5 in scoring, so any slippage in pitching will likely be exploited. The Mets and Dodgers are two betting favorites for the World Series this year, and whoever wins this series will have a nice confidence boost going into the playoffs. Look for this game to stay relatively close with enough runs to cover the over.